Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts

Monday, January 15, 2018

IBM's predictions from December 2013

http://venturebeat.com/2013/12/16/ibm-reveals-its-top-five-predictions-for-the-next-five-years/

In a nutshell, IBM says:
  • The classroom will learn you.
  • Buying local will beat online.
  • Doctors will use your DNA to keep you well.
  • A digital guardian will protect you online.
  • The city will help you live in it.

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

IBM's predictions from December 2011

Am posting this on December 20, 2011, but it is scheduled to appear only 5 years from now.  (The number of assumptions involved in posting this on future date is quite large!).

IBM Reveals Five Innovations That Will Change Our Lives within Five Years - IBM Press Release (e)
IBM unveiled the sixth annual “IBM 5 in 5" – a list of innovations that have the potential to change the way people work, live and interact during the next five years: The next IBM 5 in 5 is based on market and societal trends as well as emerging technologies from IBM’s research labs around the world that can make these transformations possible. Here are how five technologies will define the future:
People power will come to life -- Anything that moves or produces heat has the potential to create energy that can be captured. Walking. Jogging. Bicycling. The heat from your computer. Even the water flowing through your pipes. Advances in renewable energy technology will allow individuals to collect this kinetic energy, which now goes to waste, and use it to help power our homes, offices and cities.
You will never need a password again -- You will no longer need to create, track or remember multiple passwords for various log-ins. Imagine you will be able to walk up to an ATM machine to securely withdraw money by simply speaking your name or looking into a tiny sensor that can recognize the unique patterns in the retina of your eye. Or by doing the same, you can check your account balance on your mobile phone or tablet. Referred to as multi-factor biometrics, smarter systems will be able to use this information in real-time to make sure whenever someone is attempting to access your information, it matches your unique biometric profile and the attempt is authorized.
Mind reading is no longer science fiction -- IBM scientists are among those researching how to link your brain to your devices, such as a computer or a smartphone. If you just need to think about calling someone, it happens. Or you can control the cursor on a computer screen just by thinking about where you want to move it. Within 5 years, we will begin to see early applications of this technology in the gaming and entertainment industry. Furthermore, doctors could use the technology to test brain patterns, possibly even assist in rehabilitation from strokes and to help in understanding brain disorders, such as autism. .
The digital divide will cease to exist -- As it becomes cheaper to own a mobile phone, people without a lot of spending power will be able to do much more than they can today. Growing communities will be able to use mobile technology to provide access to essential information and better serve people with new solutions and business models such as mobile commerce and remote healthcare.
Junk mail will become priority mail -- In five years, unsolicited advertisements may feel so personalized and relevant it may seem spam is dead. At the same time, spam filters will be so precise you’ll never be bothered by unwanted sales pitches again.


Friday, January 29, 2016

Artificial Intelligence is not yet ready to take over the world

Per Yoshio Bengio, the fears that Artificial Intelligence is on the threshold of taking over the world are misplaced.

I'd also add that a real AI, if asked to take over the world, will probably politely decline.

Sunday, March 08, 2015

A pile of bunk

In his recent NYT column, Ross Douthat refers to this conversation on edge.org between Daniel Kahneman and Yuval Noah Harari.  Kahneman is a Nobel Laureatte, and Harari is a historian who has won attention for successfully pushing his greatly oversimplified view of reality. 

The best you can say about this conversation is that Harari is talking about many decades from now; and there's little original there - the masters of science fiction have long covered all these scenarios.

Let's take a few:
Nobody has a clue how the world will look like in, say, 40, 50 years.
There is nothing new or profound about that.  Consider the changes over the lifetime of a person who lived 1900-1980.  
But in the 21st century, there is a good chance that most humans will lose, they are losing, their military and economic value. This is true for the military, it's done, it's over. 
This might be true in the future; but if it was true today, the USwould have ended the civil war in Syria, and failing that, it would certainly wipe out in zero time the excrescence that is ISIS/Daish. But military operations still require putting people in harm's way;  remote air power is insufficient to defeat ISIS; it needs "boots on the ground".

And the handful of people trickling in from Europe and America to join ISIS would not cause such consternation and alarm, if humans were so not-valuable for military purposes.
People never die because the Angel of Death comes, they die because their heart stops pumping, or because an artery is clogged, or because cancerous cells are spreading in the liver or somewhere. These are all technical problems, and in essence, they should have some technical solution. And this way of thinking is now becoming very dominant in scientific circles, and also among the ultra-rich who have come to understand that, wait a minute, something is happening here. For the first time in history, if I'm rich enough, maybe I don't have to die.
The attitude may be there (Steve Jobs might be an exception?) but this way of thinking is delusional.  Not that there is an Angel of Death,  but  in thinking that "having some technical solution" means being able to achieve such a solution.    The problem of reconciling quantum mechanics and the General Theory of Relativity is a technical problem, and in essence, it should have a technical solution.  Good luck with that!   And how far have we gotten with curing cancer?  Or understanding the cause of autism?   All these are "technical problems".    Finding efficient computation for  NP-complete problems is a "technical problem" with a "technical solution".

If any ultra-rich person thinks that the world is like the Star Trek universe, where the Captain asks how long will it take to solve this never-before encountered complex engineering or scientific problem, and the crew says "5 hours", and the Captain says, "make it 4, make it so", and it all happens, please send that ultra-rich person my way, so I may join the ranks of the ultra-rich in short order.


Wednesday, March 14, 2012

The Incredible Volkswagen Transparent Factory

Saturday, February 04, 2012

HP's lousy printers

At least, with the HP 5510, you cannot set up the printer without the set-up cartridges that come with the printer. If one of those is defective you are SOL. The regular HP cartridges for the printer WILL NOT WORK. You cannot get a replacement set-up cartridge from your nearby friendly retailer. The HP web-site states this.

I hope HP meets the fate of Kodak for this lousy piece of engineering. Obviously, you will henceforth have to pay me to own a HP product.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Food for thought

Just how many digital crumbs should you leave for a Google to follow?
Sara Marie Watson in The Atlantic.
Bradley Horowitz, Google's Vice President of Product for Google+:
Until now, every single Google property acted like a separate company. Due to the way we grew, through various acquisitions and the fierce independence of each division within Google, each product sort of veered off in its own direction. That was dizzying. But Google+ is Google itself. We're extending it across all that we do -- search, ads, Chrome, Android, Maps, YouTube -- so that each of those services contributes to our understanding of who you are.
Sara Marie Watson writes:
“To me, the result of this consolidation that gives me cause for concern is the fundamental integration of my entire digital life. When you start pulling together email data with browser data, that really begins to paint a near-complete picture of a life lived on the internet. It's not just search terms, not just circles of friends. It's every last digital scrap of me.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

SOPA and PIP

Google today:
Google Protest of SOPA

Many websites today are engaging in an awareness campaign about two pieces of pending U.S. anti-piracy legislation -- SOPA (The Stop Online Piracy Act) and PIPA (The Protect IP Act). The problem with these acts is that if this legislation passes, the primary requirement on the World Wide Web will be censorship-compliance.

Read more here.

See Daily Kos, too.

PS: Read Glenn Greenwald, too, the corruption of America's political class is on clear display.

PPS: Just how bad SOPA is:
The provision in question would force search engines, advertisers, banking and financial firms and even Internet service providers  to de-list websites accused - not proven, but simply accused - of copyright infringement. The provision even includes language that would allow the Justice Department to force ISPs to falsify DNS records so as to prevent users from being able to even locate a suspect site. That's bad... particularly for Internet users who are completely uninitiated. But for the rest of us who aren't members of Congress, two brilliant Firefox add-ons provide ingenious workarounds.

Thursday, October 06, 2011

RIP, Steve Jobs!

:(


Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Thought for the day

From RJ Lipton's blog (included in the blog list on the left) this quote from Martin Grötschel (2003):
{\dots} that a benchmark production planning model solved using linear programming would have taken 82 years to solve in 1988, using the computers and the linear programming algorithms of the day. Fifteen years later—in 2003—this same model could be solved in roughly 1 minute, an improvement by a factor of roughly 43 million. Of this, a factor of roughly 1,000 was due to increased processor speed, whereas a factor of roughly 43,000 was due to improvements in algorithms! 

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Forbes: Why Amazon can't make the Kindle in America

Forbes: Well worth reading, thinking about, and acting upon.

“So the decline of manufacturing in a region sets off a chain reaction. Once manufacturing is outsourced, process-engineering expertise can’t be maintained, since it depends on daily interactions with manufacturing. Without process-engineering capabilities, companies find it increasingly difficult to conduct advanced research on next-generation process technologies. Without the ability to develop such new processes, they find they can no longer develop new products. In the long term, then, an economy that lacks an infrastructure for advanced process engineering and manufacturing will lose its ability to innovate.”

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Lytro

Lytro is a company with an exciting new camera technology.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Messenger to Mercury

Nasa's Messenger spacecraft has successfully entered into orbit around the planet Mercury - the first probe to do so.

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

Weaknesses leading to systemic failure

From Systemic failures: Challenges and opportunities in risk management in complex systems, Venkat Venkatasubramanian  (emphasis added)
Table 2. Some Typical Examples of Failures at Various Levels in a Systemic Failure
Individuals
  •  Poor operator training or inexperienced operators leading to human errors
  •  Not enough personnel due to downsizing
Equipment
  • Poor maintenance and wear-and-tear leading to equipment failure
  • Wrong material, capacity, or equipment
Procedures
  • Standard operating procedures not followed, workers make up their own or perform short cuts
  • Past mini-accidents and warnings ignored
  • Process hazards analysis (PHA) not conducted thoroughly
  • Poor emergency planning and training
Safety Systems
  • Safety systems not tested and maintained properly
  • Back-up and/or emergency systems not on automatic but on manual
Management • Failure in communication between ranks
  • Safety is not made priority #1, cost cutting is
  • Senior management lacking the background to appreciate the risks inherent in complex process plants – too much emphasis on financial spreadsheets and not enough on process flowsheets
  • “Performance at all costs” culture encouraging excessive risk taking and unethical behavior among its employees
Corporate Board
  • Rewarding short term performance instead of long term
  • Setting up perverse incentives that are detrimental to the long term survival of the company
Government: Policies and Regulators
  • Laissez-faire regulatory policies, reliance on self policing
  • Policies not strictly enforced due to limited resources or inherent conflict of interests of the regulatory bodies (as seen in SEC and MMS)
National: Political
  • Anti-government or anti-regulations sentiment dominant
  • Sustainability warnings ignored
  • Celebration of greed

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Thunderbolt

This blog had mentioned Light Peak, a new computer peripheral/electronics interconnect technology from Intel and the speculation that Apple would leapfrog USB 3.0 and go for this technology.

Well, it did, under the tradename of "Thunderbolt". Here is the Intel page and the Apple page.

The promise is of 10 Gpbs of throughput in both directions, daisy chaining, 10 watts of power for peripherals, simple (cheap???) adapters to connect Thunderbolt to USB and Firewire devices and general joy and salvation for the world.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

A cheap way to mathematical immortality?

From here.  Pay your fee and you get to name a mathematical theorem!

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Light Peak and USB 3.0

Light Peak is the name of the new Intel optical interconnect for computers and consumer devices.  Using thin optical cable, Light Peak will begin at a speed of 10 Gbps, and move to 100 Gbps.   In comparison, the newly emerging USB 3.0 reaches a theoretical maximum of 3.2 Gbps.

Out of the gates, USB 3.0 has the advantage of backward compatability of a huge installed base.  But it is also a technology that has passed the middle age of its lifecycle. 

There is considerable speculation that Apple will bypass USB 3.0 in favor of Light Peak (e.g., here and  here).

I imagine that along with a copper pair for power, and the long cable lengths allowed by Light Peak, we may be closer to my longstanding wish for a daisy chain of my audio, video and computer components, replacing the current dense mess of cables.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Google Code Jam

In the scores of the first round of the 2010 Google Code Jam, the first American flag I see is at the 20th position, and the first Indian flag is at the 54th position. Of course, scores of 100 go on till place 115. Still, I'm disappointed.

Machine Yoga

Old, but impressive.

Friday, April 30, 2010

America's broken policy machine

Via Infoworld, you can get to Lawrence Lessig's excellent presentation on America's broadband policy, internet security policy and copyright laws. They highlight a broken system.

Do watch the presentation, at blip.tv. (You have a choice of formats.)