There was a (turns-out-not-to-be-funny) joke circulating, of the form "Omg I'm so excited for the season finale of America".
Well Season Finale has arrived. So what will the next season of this reality show bring?
Having been wrong about so many things, what's a few more among friends? Here are my prognostications:
1. The world will have to solve the crisis of global warming and climate change without much help and perhaps some hindrance from the US federal government. I don't know what happens to the Paris Accord if Trump walks the US out of it, as he has said he would do; but the rest of the world should, in my opinion, try to stick with the program.
2. The financial markets will be very volatile until Trump's intentions (and ability to act on them) become clear. For example, Trump has stated positions against the Dodd-Frank financial industry regulations, but also in favor of the older Glass-Steagal regulations. What does he mean to do and what will he be able to get through Congress?
3. If the financial markets don't stabilize, then perhaps there will be a US recession. There will be little to pull the US out of recession and the people who voted Trump in are likely for a bitter disappointment. Their economic prospects will likely not improve. (I'd be really glad to be disappointed about this.)
4. Obamacare will be repealed, the chokehold the medical/pharma industry has on the US economy will tighten, healthcare will become much more expensive, and less available (again, a blow for the people who voted for Trump, and a prediction I really hope I'm wrong about.)
5. Europe which ought to band together more tightly for its own protection because of the uncertainty of the American umbrella will likely not be able to do so. They are all in the grip of Trumpist movements of their own. I expect Europe to be in a prolonged recession, too.
6. Trump might scrap the nuclear deal with Iran, and Iran may resume its climb up the nuclear capabilities ladder. If this happens, it is almost certain that there will be a war, an attempt to bomb Iran into submission. I think one side-effect will be that Shia terrorism will also start to globalize (right now only Sunni terrorism is global in scope).
7. India's hope of export-driven economic growth will simply be dashed with the US and Europe in recession. India's economic growth will have to be driven internally and thus will be slower than otherwise possible (but perhaps more sustainable?) With a large chunk of the global economy in recession, India will be able to count on low prices for energy.
8. The Middle East is a major source of employment for Indians (I think annual remittances are of the order of $80 billion per year) and some of India's largest trading partners are in the region. Things like a US-Iran war will tend to place this in some jeopardy.
9. Back to America - the US will have an extremely conservative Supreme Court for the rest of my lifetime. We will see more guns, choice taken away from women, the further enshrinement of corporations as people with religious beliefs, free speech rights and so on. Labor unions are going to completely wither away. Much of civil rights will devolve back to the States, and the cultural divide between the liberal coasts and the Christianist middle and south will intensify.
10. All in all, the leadership in the world that Americans have pretty much taken for granted is going to evaporate, initially because of the uncertainty of Trump, and later possibly because of the policy Trump and the Republicans enact.
PS: The main immediate issue is the uncertainty. Trump could boost US economic growth with a massive infrastructure program, but that requires going into deficit, which may not be politically feasible; and Trump also wants to reduce the deficit. Trump has made a number of promises that are inconsistent, and no one knows which ones he will honor.
Well Season Finale has arrived. So what will the next season of this reality show bring?
Having been wrong about so many things, what's a few more among friends? Here are my prognostications:
1. The world will have to solve the crisis of global warming and climate change without much help and perhaps some hindrance from the US federal government. I don't know what happens to the Paris Accord if Trump walks the US out of it, as he has said he would do; but the rest of the world should, in my opinion, try to stick with the program.
2. The financial markets will be very volatile until Trump's intentions (and ability to act on them) become clear. For example, Trump has stated positions against the Dodd-Frank financial industry regulations, but also in favor of the older Glass-Steagal regulations. What does he mean to do and what will he be able to get through Congress?
3. If the financial markets don't stabilize, then perhaps there will be a US recession. There will be little to pull the US out of recession and the people who voted Trump in are likely for a bitter disappointment. Their economic prospects will likely not improve. (I'd be really glad to be disappointed about this.)
4. Obamacare will be repealed, the chokehold the medical/pharma industry has on the US economy will tighten, healthcare will become much more expensive, and less available (again, a blow for the people who voted for Trump, and a prediction I really hope I'm wrong about.)
5. Europe which ought to band together more tightly for its own protection because of the uncertainty of the American umbrella will likely not be able to do so. They are all in the grip of Trumpist movements of their own. I expect Europe to be in a prolonged recession, too.
6. Trump might scrap the nuclear deal with Iran, and Iran may resume its climb up the nuclear capabilities ladder. If this happens, it is almost certain that there will be a war, an attempt to bomb Iran into submission. I think one side-effect will be that Shia terrorism will also start to globalize (right now only Sunni terrorism is global in scope).
7. India's hope of export-driven economic growth will simply be dashed with the US and Europe in recession. India's economic growth will have to be driven internally and thus will be slower than otherwise possible (but perhaps more sustainable?) With a large chunk of the global economy in recession, India will be able to count on low prices for energy.
8. The Middle East is a major source of employment for Indians (I think annual remittances are of the order of $80 billion per year) and some of India's largest trading partners are in the region. Things like a US-Iran war will tend to place this in some jeopardy.
9. Back to America - the US will have an extremely conservative Supreme Court for the rest of my lifetime. We will see more guns, choice taken away from women, the further enshrinement of corporations as people with religious beliefs, free speech rights and so on. Labor unions are going to completely wither away. Much of civil rights will devolve back to the States, and the cultural divide between the liberal coasts and the Christianist middle and south will intensify.
10. All in all, the leadership in the world that Americans have pretty much taken for granted is going to evaporate, initially because of the uncertainty of Trump, and later possibly because of the policy Trump and the Republicans enact.
PS: The main immediate issue is the uncertainty. Trump could boost US economic growth with a massive infrastructure program, but that requires going into deficit, which may not be politically feasible; and Trump also wants to reduce the deficit. Trump has made a number of promises that are inconsistent, and no one knows which ones he will honor.
Logging you in...
parrikar 32p · 438 weeks ago
(*) https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/79624...
macgupta 81p · 438 weeks ago
parrikar 32p · 438 weeks ago
The three issues that guided me were (in brief):
1) Immigration, both legal and illegal. Enforcing our borders. The idea that our govt should first take care of the people already here, that there is no constitutional right for the world to immigrate to the US, of making diversity in and of itself the Holy Grail while neglecting people already here (the Left reflexively brands those who call for restricting immigration anti-immigrant and/or xenophobic or worse. I have had a similar experience in Goa in a different context.)
2) Jihadism, 'refugees' from jihadi hotspots.
3) The PC tyranny sweeping our university campuses and faculty. The Left doesn't want you to think thoughts it doesn't approve of.
Whether Trump has sanguine approaches to these issues was less relevant than the realization that Obama, Hillary & crew wanted to take the country in a direction I didn't want it to.
Ultimately, we vote based on an expectation. There are no guarantees in life.
parrikar 32p · 438 weeks ago
macgupta 81p · 438 weeks ago
Any thoughts on that?
macgupta 81p · 438 weeks ago
The Paul Ryan Republicans want tax cuts, period. Trump will either have to forgo tax cuts or else run at a larger rate of deficit. The Freedom Caucus in the House will not let larger deficits through.
To get an infrastructure program going, Trump will need some Democratic votes in Congress. They've already signaled they will support it - see Nancy Pelosi's statement yesterday. The question then is, will Paul Ryan suspend the Hastert rule, which requires a bill to have support of the majority of the Republicans in the House before it can come to a floor vote.
macgupta 81p · 438 weeks ago
There is a great Rukmini Callimachi article in the NYT from a few years ago, about how, over the internet, ISIS almost succeeded in recruiting a young American white Christian girl, Sunday school teacher and all that she was; someone intervened and stopped it. The threat is not refugees who are seriously vetted anyway. Trump is no more going to be able to stop jihadism than Canute could stop the tides, by a ban on Muslim entry or any such.
On PCism, I agree. For instance, the ideas of Islam need to be thoroughly examined and criticized, without fear of the charge of "Islamophobia" or of jihadi violence, just as those of Christianity have; and that is where the Left has fallen down the most. You may have read Sarah Haider's speech I posted here long ago, she is of the ex-Muslims of North America and she describes the disease well: http://arunsmusings.blogspot.com/2015/05/sarah-ha...
I remained off of dailykos until a couple of days ago (and am now off of it again) because they would not allow a post of something Faisal al Mutar ( http://www.faisalalmutar.com/ ) had on his site.
But as this young man (whom I know) found out, with Trump supporters in his neighborhood, it has become more than a matter of political differences: http://affinitymagazine.us/2016/11/02/what-does-i...
In practice, the way Trump has gone after those who say things that displease him over his entire public career, to me it does not qualify him as a champion of free speech.
parrikar 32p · 438 weeks ago
On your final point above - I'll remind you that far worse things were said of Modi by the Indian and foreign media even before he took office. He was Hitler 2.0, if you recall, and unlike Trump he did have a history (Godhra). For the record, I did not think he was anything of the sort painted by his detractors.
Finally, I don't understand politics as well as I imagine I do. It is like we going out to photograph - presented with the same scene, the same objective reality, we likely come back with different photographs of the same subject. I see the Left-leaning sites are full of fury about how Trumpocalyse is already here citing racist graffiti and other racist incidents. If you scour the Right-leaning sites, you come across several articles showing the obverse - a Muslim woman in Louisiana making up a false claim, Trump supporters harassed and beaten, and so on. Paul Krugman's column today has a twist. He now concedes that the economic disaster he predicted under Trump won't happen on Day 1 but has been postponed. Very clever of him. We are likely at or near the peak of the current economic cycle so should the downturn happen in the next 4 years, Kruggie will go to town saying "I told you so." The Republicans will blame Obama and say that his chickens have finally come home to roost.
macgupta 81p · 437 weeks ago
There was a bomb blast around an election rally at Patna; and Modi told the people, Hindus and Muslims, that either we can fight or else we can work together for prosperity. Trump on the other hand, we know what he said all through the elections, it is there in black and white and in video and on twitter. We also know what he did all through his business career. I don't know, maybe it didn't make the press beyond the NY-NJ circle?
That the Indian Left was mewling after Modi's election and the American Left is doing the same after Trump's election does not make them the same, except in superficial appearance that two Left wings are screaming.
As to the economy, this is probably the best out there, by @AdamPosen https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qASazE4RkCo&f...
macgupta 81p · 437 weeks ago
Illegal crossings from Mexico are at their lowest levels since the 1970s.
Both Bush Jr. and Obama wanted to do immigration reform, but the House Republicans wanted the southern border secured as a precondition for any deal. Bush Jr. greatly expanded and Obama sustained a huge increase in Border Patrol and ICE.
Anyway, all the data is out there for anyone interested to look up, if it is important enough to decide who should be president.
parrikar 32p · 438 weeks ago
macgupta 81p · 438 weeks ago
Quote: think we should all take a deep breath. President Elect Donald Trump has some very big promises to fulfill. Essentially he has promised to improve the lives and job prospects of the "forgotten men and women" of "fly over" country of the American heartland. Meanwhile the Republican Congress is hastily dusting off its usual bait and switch playbook of rich tax benefits for the 1% coupled with cuts to programs that address the needs of the forgotten man. The president elect must accomplish his goals using the government which his party holds is not a job creator and/or businesses that have outsourced jobs to foreign or immigrant labor or to automation in the first place in pursuit of economic advantage. The president elect's own businesses have employed this model. I think this is a tall order and although I don't predict his presidency will implode his biggest danger is the fact that republicans in congress may seek to highjack the poorly defined goals of his supporters to reward the usual suspects that they serve. If that happens Mr Trump may find that the "forgotten man" may not be as understanding of his antics as they were during the 2016 campaign.
macgupta 81p · 438 weeks ago
PS: there is a difference that makes a difference between { xenophobe, racist, misogynist } and { corrupt }.
parrikar 32p · 438 weeks ago
macgupta 81p · 438 weeks ago
This kind of thing, the mildest of which I mentioned, however, has been going on for months well before the elections. After the election results, I expect there to be some turbulence, and will discount that.
But unfortunately, I expect this is going to continue after that for quite a while.
macgupta 81p · 438 weeks ago
Quote:
Most of the explanations one hears of Trump’s success don’t hold up if you look at exit polling numbers:
* Sexism: more white women voted for Trump than for Clinton.
* Racism: many counties that went solidly for Obama in the past went to Trump this election. Many Trump voters last voted for an African-American President.
* Revolt of the rural poor whites: While New York City went heavily to Clinton, nearby Suffolk County on Long Island, with a median family income of $100,000, went for Trump.
* Ignorance, lack of education: Most white college graduates voted for Trump.
There is however a common thread in most stories I’ve read that let Trump supporters say why they were voting for him: they hated Hillary Clinton and found her dishonest.
End quote.
A concert onslaught from the Right and from the Left and from the media, even like the New York Times, helped convince people that Clinton was corrupt and dishonest.
Quote:
Whatever you think of Hillary Clinton, the idea that Donald Trump is more honest is quite simply insane. The central question of how we got to a Trump presidency is to understand how this destruction of Clinton’s reputation was accomplished. What makes this tricky is that there was such a huge campaign from all sides to do this, including not just the usual Republican politics of personal destruction machine (Drudge Report, Breitbart, Fox News), but a wide array of actors on the center and the left, including:
* Julian Assange and Wikileaks, quite likely fronting for Russian secret services.
* All sorts of lefty news sources, too many examples to pick. Susan Webber who runs Naked Capitalism today is gleeful at the Trump win, and hopes that this is what we’ll soon see:
There is one more Trump campaign promise that will serve as an important early test of his seriousness as well as his survival skills: investigating Clinton. Even if Obama pardons her, as our Jerri-Lynn Scofield has predicted, it will be critical for Trump to carry out a probe of the Clinton Foundation’s business while Clinton was Secretary of State.
* The New York Times, which for months nearly every day published an above-the-fold front page news article attacking Clinton’s ethics, with several reporters (Amy Chozick, for one) tasked to make it their full-time assignment to produce such stories. While their opinion writers were mostly more restrained, there’s the bizarre case of Maureen Dowd who for 25 years has been writing literally hundreds of pieces about what she feels is ethically wrong with Hillary Clinton. On the Sunday before the election the Times ran not one but two pieces by Dowd attacking Clinton: a shorter one in the op-ed section, and a longer one in the Magazine section.
Together with the onslaught of right-wing “News” attacking Clinton’s honesty, it is not surprising that more voters decided Trump was the honest one, or that this likely was enough to get him elected (with a minority of the popular vote).
End quote.