Did the US suffer from a STEM labor shortage 2011-2021?

 

The estimate below shows that American production of STEM graduates during 2011-2021 did not keep up with the demand for such in the workforce.  The shortfall must have been made up from imported labor.

 

Table SLBR-2 in this  NSF web publication

https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsb20245/u-s-stem-workforce-size-growth-and-employment

The data says that the number of employed workers in STEM occupations with a bachelor’s degree or higher grew from 11,858,595 in 2011 to 17,547,951 in 2021.

This is an increase of 5,689,356.

From the National Center for Education Statistics, the number of post-secondary degrees and certificates in STEM conferred 2012-13 to 2022-23 is given (11 years)

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d24/tables/dt24_318.45.asp

 

 

If we take the first ten years, subtracting off non-residents, it is just under 6 million graduates.

Of course, there is overcounting here, because someone who got a bachelor’s in 2012 might have obtained a masters in 2014, and is counted twice.  But let’s not worry about that.  Also, not everyone with a STEM degree ends up in a STEM career.

Then there is attrition - from the approximately 12 million workers in 2011, how many retired?  

If the number of employed workers was constant, and a career lasts 50 years, then 2% of the workers should retire each year.  If the number of workers is growing with more young entrants, then that number should be less. Google AI says that in 2006, there were 9.4 million employed workers in STEM occupations with bachelor’s or more (it said it couldn’t find specific numbers for 2001).  We can’t linearly extrapolate because it would mean about zero such workers in the late 1980s.   Let’s go with 0.5% per year of the 12 million in 2011 retired or otherwise left the field, and that amounts to 600,000.

So the US produced a maximum of 6 million graduates and required 5.7 million for the new jobs and 0.6 million for the existing jobs vacated by retirees.  That is already a shortage of 300K.

About the double counting - 

Google AI says: Over the decade between 2011 and 2021, Science & Engineering master's degrees consistently increased, averaging more than 170,000 awards per year; and in 2021, 217,000 Science & Engineering masters were awarded of which 60,000 were to international students.  

If we take 70% of the masters to be awarded to American citizens or permanent residents, then in 2011-2021, about 1.2 million masters were awarded, and these are double-counted with those who got bachelors. That would increase the shortage to 1.5 million.

The conclusion is that yes, the US suffered from a STEM labor shortage between 2011 and 2021.   

 

 

 

 

RIC meeting

 The RIC meeting, drawn by Google Gemini:

Flowerpecker

 

Barbets

 

Ripudaman Singh Malik - a time line

June 23, 1985: 329 people were killed when a bomb explosion took down the Air India plane Boeing 747 named Emperor Kanishka off the coast of Ireland. The plane was flying a Montreal-London-Delhi-Mumbai route. About an hour before, a bomb went off inside the terminal building of Tokyo's Narita airport, killing two baggage handlers. The bomb went off early because its timer was set incorrectly; it was intended to take down a second Air India plane. 

 Among the several accused in this terrorist plot was Ripudaman Singh Malik (Malik, henceforth in this post).

March 16, 2005: Malik was acquitted of the charges because of inadequate evidence. Two key witnesses had been murdered. Second (Wiki), "Justice Ian Josephson "cited "unacceptable negligence" by CSIS when hundreds of wiretaps of the suspects and other informants were destroyed. Of the 210 wiretaps that were recorded during the months before and after the bombing, 156 were erased. These tapes continued to be erased even after the terrorists had become the primary suspects in the bombing."

Malik of course maintained his innocence, and even tried to collect damages for his prosecution from the Canadian government. 

 Malik was put on a blacklist along with many other names, not allowed entry into India. 

 When Sri Narendra Modi became Prime Minister, he caused to be made backchannel approaches to members of the organizations that these terrorists belonged to, trying to bring about a reconciliation. It seems this outreach worked with Malik. In September 2019, Malik's name was removed from the blacklist and in December 2019, Malik made a visit to India. 

 In January 2022, Malik wrote the following letter to PM Modi:

(via The Hindustan Times)

"At the same time, Malik showed concerns at an “orchestrated campaign” by some misguided members of the Sikh community against the Modi government and India. This, he said, is being done at the behest of some foreign powers which are interested in destabilising India and challenging its national integrity." "Malik promised to work with the government of India for redressal of pending issues." In a separate letter to the Sikh community, Malik urged them to desist from the vicious and motivated campaign. 

“Violence in Punjab only ends up hurting the interests of the Sikh community in Punjab and throughout India and around the world. I do my daily Ardaas for world peace as I do not like seeing my community or any community suffer due to violence,” he said in the letter. “I do not believe it is right to unfairly criticise the Prime Minister given his many positive gestures towards the Sikh community. Instead of criticising we should be appreciating and engaging meaningfully with the government of India under his leadership towards a positive partnership for the future,” Singh furthers said in the letter.

These letters earned Malik the sobriquet "“kaum ka gaddar” (traitor) by the terrorist organizations. 

Going back a couple of years, via the Times of India, August 22, 2020:

AMRITSAR: Various Sikh bodies across the world are questioning the alleged printing of Guru Granth Sahib by a Canada-based Sikh society and the permission to print it. Canada-based British Columbia Gurdwara Council (BCGC) spokesperson Moninder Singh on Friday said they had issued a notice to Ripudaman Singh Malik, who was acquitted for his role in the 1985 Kanishka airplane bombing, and Balwant Singh Pandher of Satnam Parchar Religious Society (SPRS), Surrey, British Columbia, for violating the Akal Takht directives on the printing of Guru Granth Sahib saroops (copies).

One of Malik's projects was a Khalsa school (Sikh religious school). 

 (Via The Tribune)

In June 2022, "Akal Takht Jathedar Giani Harpreet Singh was scheduled to visit Canada for three days. The programme included laying the foundation of Khalsa College. “The Jathedar’s visit to the Malik’s function was opposed by certain groups, who threatened to gherao the venue. Subsequently, the visit was cancelled."

(Via Global News, Canada, in a story dated June 22, 2023: )

A later dispute over a commercial printing press may have put Nijjar at odds with Ripudaman Singh Malik, who was acquitted of involvement in the deadly 1985 Air India bombings. The machine was purchased by Malik and a partner, who intended to use it to print Sikh religious scripture, according to court documents. Malik handed the press over to Nijjar in November 2020 “for safekeeping,” according to B.C. Supreme Court records. But Nijjar refused to return it, a civil suit alleged. Malik was murdered in July 2022. A lawsuit launched in February 2023 sought the return of the equipment.

July 14, 2022 : Ripudaman Singh Malik was shot dead by two gunmen. 

July 27, 2022 : Canadian law enforcement charged Tanner Fox, 21, and Jose Lopez, 23, with the murder of Malik. The charge was for murder in the first degree. 

May 27, 2023: Tanner Fox charged with the with second-degree murder in the death of Chad Colivas, 41, of Abbotsford. March 21, 2022. Also charged in Colivas’s death is Laetitia Acera, 30, of Abbotsford. She is facing a charge of manslaughter. 

October 21, 2024: Tanner Fox and Jose Lopez plead guilty to second-degree murder; but we are told they have not revealed who hired them. 

The Canadian government and its intelligence and investigative agencies keep alleging the involvement of the Government of India in the murder of various Canadians. These Canadians are members of the various terrorist or gangster organizations; Canada has denied extradition requests from India and Interpol Red Corner notices. 

 (Via CBC):

Fox and Lopez are not of Indian origin; sources told CBC News they're believed to have connections to organized crime in B.C. Investigators have told CBC they do not believe Lopez and Fox were contracted directly by Indian diplomats, but rather through criminal intermediaries.

What the Canadians do not acknowledge is the later history of Malik, and how it dilutes any possible motive for the government of India to have Malik assassinated.  On the other hand, the darling terrorist of the Canadians, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, certainly had more than one motive; and the Canadians have reason to cover up any involvement of Nijjar.  Their actions in the Kanishka bombing prove that no chicanery is beyond them.

V-Dem in Action!

 

V-Dem Institute

@vdeminstitute

A unique approach to conceptualizing and measuring democracy. Dataset with 31 million data points, 202 countries, 480+ indicators, from 1789-2023.

The V-Dem Institute, led by Professor Staffan I. Lindberg, is an independent research institute and the Headquarters of the V-Dem project. The institute is based at the Department of Political Science at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden.

The V-Dem Project Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) is a unique approach to conceptualizing and measuring democracy. We provide a multidimensional and disaggregated dataset that reflects the complexity of the concept of democracy as a system of rule that goes beyond the simple presence of elections. The V-Dem project distinguishes between five high-level principles of democracy: electoral, liberal, participatory, deliberative, and egalitarian, and collects data to measure these principles.

 

Note: the V-Dem produces its rankings using among other things, the subjective opinion of anonymous supposed-experts.   But when asked, they claim they have a model that runs on a supercomputer.

Female Purple Sunbird

 

Female Cinnyris asiaticus