Monday, November 14, 2016

Bond sell-off

Just the facts from here:

[Bond] Sellers remained in control on Thursday, and the market was able to take a breather on Friday as it was closed in observance of Veterans Day.
However, sellers are back in charge on Monday. Heavy selling across the complex has yields higher by at least 8 basis points. Here's a look at the scoreboard as of 7:15 a.m. ET:
  • 2-year +7.3 bps at 98.8 bps
  • 3-year +10.4 bps at 1.27%
  • 5-year +11.2 bps at 1.67%
  • 7-year +11.5 bps at 2.03%
  • 10-year +10.2 bps at 2.25%
  • 30-year +9 bps at 3.02%
Several notable developments have taken place amid Monday's destruction. The 2-year yield crossed the 1.00% threshold for the first time since January, and the 10-year is also at levels last seen since the beginning of the year. Additionally, the 30-year yield is above 3.00% and at its highest level since early December. All of this comes as the Fed readies for its first rate hike since December 2015. Fed fund futures data compiled by Bloomberg shows an 84% probability of a 25 bp rate hike at the upcoming meeting.
There is a narrative around all this, which I'm omitting, but the meaning of this market signal is that the market expects inflation.