Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Improbability

An autismspeaks.org advertisement in the New York Times magazine, proclaims:

ODDS OF BECOMING A TOP RANKED NASCAR DRIVER: 1 IN 125 BILLION
ODDS OF A CHILD BEING DIAGNOSED WITH AUTISM: 1 IN 88
I wasn't the first to notice it, Chance News, which reviews news with statistics or probability concepts, notes
(There are only about 7 billion people in the world, so if there are only two “top ranked drivers” then the odds are only 1 in 3.5 billion or so.)
PS: The 1 in 88 odds of autism is in the news, e.g., here (LA Times). Please note that it is one of those "if you look you will find it" cases. Utah and New Jersey which screen extensively for autism,  have rates of 1 in 47 and 1 in 49 respectively.   Alabama, which does little, has a rate of 1 in 208.