Is the worry about democracy justified?

People are going around with their heads on fire, that the popular support for democracy is diminishing around the world, or that people are more in favor of strong, non-democratic leaders than ever before.

Where the data is available, it is worth looking at the survey in full.  The latest "sky-is-falling" is in the Financial Times, based on the World Value Survey. 

The World Value Survey  has data published in six waves.  The question of interest to us is:

I'm going to describe various types of political systems and ask what you think about each as a way of governing this country. For each one, would you say it is a very good, fairly good, fairly bad or very bad way of governing this country?

Having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections.

Having experts, not government, make decisions according to what they think is best for the country.

Having the army rule

Having a democratic political system

I've put together the data for the two countries I care about for only two parts of the multi-part question.  The first two waves don't have both countries represented, and don't seem to have the equivalent question, so the cells are blank. The numbers are percentages. The DNK+NA column is the sum of "Do Not Know",  "No Answer" and the sometimes tiny non-zero percentage of "Did not ask".    I was careful in transcribing the numbers, but if you spot any errors in transcription, do let me know.

Having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections
	India					USA
Wave	Very good	Fairly good	Bad	Very bad	DNK+NA	Very good	Fairly good	Bad	Very bad	DNK+NA
1981-1984
1990-1994
1995-1998	17.2	27.0	13.8	6.9	35.1	3.1	20.6	23.9	47.3	5.2
1999-2004	25.5	17.3	19.3	10.3	27.5	8.4	20.7	37.4	31.9	1.7
2005-2009	18.3	27.3	17.5	8.3	28.6	6.6	25.0	30.7	33.9	3.9
2010-2014	35.3	21.1	13.1	17.4	13.0	6.1	28.0	26.2	37.2	2.5

 

Having a democratic political system
	India					USA
Wave	Very good	Fairly good	Bad	Very bad	DNK+NA	Very good	Fairly good	Bad	Very bad	DNK+NA
1981-1984
1990-1994
1995-1998	38.1	32.9	4.9	1.4	22.7	50.9	34.2	6.4	2.6	6.0
1999-2004	37.8	30.2	3.5	1.5	26.9	50.5	35.3	6.4	4.1	3.7
2005-2009	39.7	30.3	4.5	1.8	23.7	43.2	38.7	10.2	3.5	4.4
2010-2014	53.6	26.1	6.0	2.8	11.5	37.8	41.9	12.2	4.9	3.2

Adding the "Very good" and "Fairly good" columns, the trends for India, past to present, of liking a strong non-democratic leader is 44.2, 42.8, 45.6, 56.4; and of liking a democracy is 71.0, 68.0, 70.0, 79.7.   It would seem that in India both ideas, that of strong undemocratic leader and of a democratic system are more popular than in the past.

For the USA, the strong non-democratic leader trend is 23.7, 29.1, 31.6, 34.1.  The democracy trend is 85.1, 85.8, 81.9, 79.7.

I don't know that one can read a lot into the numbers.  Perhaps we have to wait for the results of the seventh wave.  I note that:

• In the US the trends for democracy and strongmen are in opposite directions; in India they are in the same direction.  
• In the India, the pro-strong-man opinion has crossed 50%.
• Both countries nevertheless are overwhelming in favor of having a democratic political system. 

If you think about it, the interpretation of the questions asked is not as plain as you might think.  In a parliamentary system, a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections might simply mean, to some responders, a leader with a strong single-party parliamentary majority, who does not have to cobble together coalitions, and whose government is not constantly extorted by  constituents of the coalition who threaten to pull out and bring down the government.

In the USA, the President is elected to a four year term and does not have to bother with Parliament, and some respondents might simply be saying they prefer the Presidential system to the Parliamentary scheme.

PS: the WVS survey form in Hindi

The highlighted sentence corresponds to "Having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections."

The Hindi word used for "bother" is "chintaa" (चिंता) But "chintaa" is "worry" or "anxiety" (concern, fear, disquiet), not "bother".  "Chintaa" is the feeling you might have, e.g., when your two school-age children are travelling long distance by themselves for the first time; or when you are short of money to pay your monthly bills.  The "does not have to bother with elections" is not "does not have to be anxious about elections" but rather more like "can dispense with elections".

PPS: part 2.