The estimate below shows that American production of STEM graduates during 2011-2021 did not keep up with the demand for such in the workforce. The shortfall must have been made up from imported labor.
Table SLBR-2 in this NSF web publication
https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsb20245/u-s-stem-workforce-size-growth-and-employment
The data says that the number of employed workers in STEM occupations with a bachelor’s degree or higher grew from 11,858,595 in 2011 to 17,547,951 in 2021.
This is an increase of 5,689,356.
From the National Center for Education Statistics, the number of post-secondary degrees and certificates in STEM conferred 2012-13 to 2022-23 is given (11 years)
https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d24/tables/dt24_318.45.asp
If we take the first ten years, subtracting off non-residents, it is just under 6 million graduates.
Of course, there is overcounting here, because someone who got a bachelor’s in 2012 might have obtained a masters in 2014, and is counted twice. But let’s not worry about that. Also, not everyone with a STEM degree ends up in a STEM career.
Then there is attrition - from the approximately 12 million workers in 2011, how many retired?
If the number of employed workers was constant, and a career lasts 50 years, then 2% of the workers should retire each year. If the number of workers is growing with more young entrants, then that number should be less. Google AI says that in 2006, there were 9.4 million employed workers in STEM occupations with bachelor’s or more (it said it couldn’t find specific numbers for 2001). We can’t linearly extrapolate because it would mean about zero such workers in the late 1980s. Let’s go with 0.5% per year of the 12 million in 2011 retired or otherwise left the field, and that amounts to 600,000.
So the US produced a maximum of 6 million graduates and required 5.7 million for the new jobs and 0.6 million for the existing jobs vacated by retirees. That is already a shortage of 300K.
About the double counting -
Google AI says: Over the decade between 2011 and 2021, Science & Engineering master's degrees consistently increased, averaging more than 170,000 awards per year; and in 2021, 217,000 Science & Engineering masters were awarded of which 60,000 were to international students.
If we take 70% of the masters to be awarded to American citizens or permanent residents, then in 2011-2021, about 1.2 million masters were awarded, and these are double-counted with those who got bachelors. That would increase the shortage to 1.5 million.
The conclusion is that yes, the US suffered from a STEM labor shortage between 2011 and 2021.
