Sunday, January 14, 2007

Ruddy Idiot Guiliani

New York City Police Department


"How many police officers are there in NYPD?

The NYPD's current authorized uniformed strength is 37,038, which is scheduled to increase to 37,838 in January 2007."

The New York Times, January 11, 2007

We glean from there that some 15,000 American troops were engaged in "Operation Together Forward II" to secure Baghdad in August 2006. Bush just announced another 5 combat brigades to be deployed - an increase of about 17,500 troops.

Therefore, total American troops engaged in securing Baghdad : about 32,500


"Five brigades are to be sent to improve security in the greater Baghdad area — an increase of about 17,500 troops that will double the American force involved in security operations there."

Frank Rich, NYT, January 14, 2007


"The one notable new recruit [to President Bush's bunker-world] is Rudy Guiliani, who likened taming Baghdad to "reducing crime in New York" without even noticing that even after the escalation there will be fewer American troops patrolling Baghdad than uniformed officers in insurgency-free New York City."

Added a couple of hours later:

Frank Rich informed us a week ago that the Army counterinsurgency manual calls for a minimum of 20 troops per 1000 population. Say Baghdad has a population of 5 million (actually, Baghdad's population is 6 million or greater, at least 20% more). That means 100,000 troops minimum. After Bush's escalation, the US troops will be at 40,000 (actually about 20% less). Thus a minimum of 60,000 reliable Iraqi forces dedicated to Baghdad will be needed. Do they exist?

If it is true as the President says that Iraq is the central front in the decisive ideological struggle of our time, then we have to hope that what the army faces a problem in Baghdad with significantly less manpower requirements.

Otherwise, for success, the President really has only two options:
1. Raise American forces
2. Raise International forces

The US would probably have to pay for troops under the UN flag, but if the international community can be brought on board, there will be immediate availability of manpower. If the US can make no diplomatic headway there or it is unacceptable, then the President must probably call for a draft. In either case, funds will have to be raised via new taxes.

If this war is indeed vital, then the way to win it is to call for a general mobilization.


Atrios on how the calculation above is being fudged.