Predictions for 2006

2006 may see the redrawing of borders, and emergence of two new states. I do think it is quite unlikely, the forces arrayed against this happening are quite formidable, but one never knows!

The first is the state of Kurdistan. Kurds live in Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria, and none of those states promotes Kurdish language and culture. No wonder they believe they need a nation of their own. The nucleus of the new state will be the Iraqi Kurdistan, and there will be repression and warfare in the other countries to disallow their regions from following suit. Provided here are a map of Kurdish regions and discussion of the Iraqi Kurd situation.

The second is the state of Balochistan. This western region of Pakistan is in the throes of a civil war. Of course, there are Balochs in Iran as well, and they might get involved. The issue in Pakistan is that the Balochs feel exploited by the Punjabi majority; a return to a federal democracy in Pakistan might solve the Baloch problem, but the military rulers of Paksitan are unwilling to yield.

On the face of it, the lone superpower would be against the emergence of either of these states. But if a Shiite Iraq emerges that is allied to Iran, one wonders if a independent Kurdistan, allied to the US, might not look attractive. Moreover, the potentital to destabilize Iran, from the west and the east (via Balochs) might seem attractive, if Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions cannot be contained by other means. Still, I'd say, these are rather unlikely events.

PS: B. Raman on the Balochi war of independence. One strategic consideration I failed to mention is that an independent Balochistan would deny the Chinese the port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea.